Fan Graphs has real-time Win Probability graphs for every game, which track each team’s chances of winning based on the historical odds of the specific game situation at the time. Last night’s Win ...

With 6:38 remaining in Sunday's game against the New York Giants, the Denver Broncos had a 0.7% chance to overcome a 26-8 deficit. And that's exactly what they did. Broncos second-year quarterback Bo ...

Below is the win-probability chart for the Green Bay Packers' win over the Washington Redskins. The numbers here are based on data from ESPN Stats & Information. Win probability measures the chance ...

Evolutionary dynamics act on populations. Neither genes, nor cells, nor individuals evolve; only populations evolve. In small populations, random drift dominates, whereas large populations are ...

How? We need a lot of data. Before we get there, finding the best games in the NFL isn’t an entirely new idea. In 2009 Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics (now, of ESPN) used win probability to ...